RAPAPORT...  There was good news and not-so-good news in the weekly tally of comparable chain store sales across the U.S. for the seven days that ended November 7, 2009. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs reported that weekly chain store sales rose 2.9 percent from one year ago during this period, due mainly to easy comparisons, given the retail sales slide that occurred in November 2008. Sales during that month fell by a historic 7.7 percent. However, for this past week, sales dropped 0.1 percent from the previous week, ending six consecutive week-to-week increases at the cash register.
 
“Mixed influences prevailed this past week as sales declined on a weekly basis, but rose on a year-over-year basis,” said Michael P. Niemira, the ICSC's chief economist. “Consumers are largely not focused on holiday shopping yet as the ICSC-Goldman Sachs holiday survey found that more shoppers expect to start their holiday shopping on the day following Thanksgiving — the newly dubbed 'Bargain Friday' — than in any recent year," he said.

Niemira contended, too, that such easy year-to-year comparisons will dominate weekly readings conducted throughout the month of November and during the Christmas shopping season. ICSC Research expects November sales to increase by 5 percent to 8 percent. However, as Niemira noted, "right now, sales are tracking based under that easy-comparison, inflated pace." 

LH