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India’s Growth Expected to Slow for Fiscal 2013

Aug 6, 2012 2:43 AM   By Dilipp S Nag
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RAPAPORT... India’s economic growth is expected to slow to around 6 percent to 6.3 percent in fiscal 2013, according to an ASSOCHAM survey of economists and industry leaders.‎  Growth is being impacted by the a decrease in industrial growth and its impact on the ‎service sector, lower-than-expected rainfall during the monsoon season, which has ‎impacted the agriculture sector, and the weak global economic scenario.‎

India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.5 percent in fiscal  2012, the lowest pace in nine years, according to government ‎data. As business confidence has decreased in the first fiscal quarter that ended ‎on June 30,  ASSOCHAM expects that GDP is likely to fall ‎below the 6.5 percent forecast set for the current year by the Reserve Bank of India. ‎

The survey, which questioned 110 senior industry leaders and economists, cautioned that ‎prospects for growth may deteriorate further if some of the policy issues implemented by the government are not redressed immediately. ‎Almost 80 percent of the economists surveyed stressed that government needs to ‎significantly raise its capital expenditures in order to boost investment. ‎

The survey noted that the agricultural sector, which grew by about 2.5 percent in 2012, may not show any growth this year since sowing of the summer crops, the mainstay ‎of the sector, has been by weakened by less rainfall.

The respondents stated that the industrial expansion could reach about 4 percent to 4.5 ‎percent for the year, while the services sector -- the major contributor to GDP -- is also ‎showing signs of weakness. Mining is at a near standstill due to an inadequate regulatory ‎environment and manufacturing is also declining.‎

The survey noted that while India still has a large domestic market, the country’s external ‎engagement represents more than half the size of the economy. “It is not only the ‎merchandise exports, which are getting hit, but also the services exports which are ‎directed toward the problem hit western economies,” said Rajkumar Dhoot, ASSOCHAM's ‎president.‎

About 75 percent of participants surveyed said that the persisting euro zone problems ‎and weakening growth in developing economies are weighing on global growth in 2012. ‎ASSOCHAM said that global trade flows have slowed with tight credit conditions and the ‎adverse impact of squeezing liquidity.  ‎

However, respondents pointed out that if immediate steps were taken to ‎address the policy issues, which include addressing bottlenecks facing infrastructure ‎projects and removing hurdles in the path of foreign direct investment, stronger growth would resume.‎
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Tags: ASSOCHAM, Brazi, China, Dilipp S Nag, Economy, gdp, growth, India, Monsoon, Policy, Rajkumar Dhoot, Rapaport, RBI
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