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Dear Friends,
Greetings and best wishes for the New Year.
On behalf of all of us at Rapaport, I thank you for your continued support and We
wish you and yours a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year.
Attached to this message please find my annual
New Year Message, as well as a copy
of the Rapaport Calendar 2010. The New Year Message is also repeated below.
I am pleased to write that we will soon be introducing an additional graphic format
for our weekly TradeWire. As you may prefer the current text-only format we will
ask you to let us know which format you want.
Please feel free to contact us at any time with suggestions and advice. We look
forward to hearing from you and thank you for your interest in our services.
With best wishes,
Martin Rapaport
By Martin Rapaport
Winter festivities have their roots in the celebrations of ancient man. As winter
brought about ever shorter, colder and darker days, man feared the worst. Perhaps
the trend would continue and he and his world would come to an end. And then, in
mid-winter, just after the solstice, the trend reversed. The days grew longer, warmer
and lighter. Man was elated. Yes, it was still winter and times were tough. But
the worst was over. There was hope for the future. And so it came to be that humanity
celebrates the transition from darkness to light at the peak of winter. Winter celebrations
have evolved and persisted in all cultures because they are not just about survival,
they are about man’s potential for the future.
While modern man is no longer surprised by the changing seasons, he does have problems
accepting the economic climate. We rationally adjust to the cycles of the sun but
are unable to accept the empirical fact that economic activity also follows a natural
cycle. In summer, we are too hot and in winter, too cold. So, too, do our economies
overheat as they attract irrational exuberance and speculation. And then, inevitably,
the booms go bust. Economies decline and even freeze, providing us with economic
versions of fall and winter. Finally, as our greatest fears of gloom and doom emerge,
the season changes. Emotional darkness declines as rational light increases. The
economic climate warms up. New ideas and opportunities take root and the economy
springs forward.
It’s time for us to accept and expect the realities of our cyclical existence. Nothing
is ever as good or as bad as it seems. While we may not know when or how things
will change, we do know that change is inevitable and that conservative realism
during highs and rational optimism during lows can help us keep our balance.
Recessions follow booms as surely as winter follows summer. So why are we — or were
we — surprised? Why weren’t we prepared? Will we be prepared the next time, or will
our greed make us forget?
What about the current situation? As we experience an economic winter, who among
us is preparing for the spring? Are we so captured by our dark fears and cold concerns
that we fail to see an enlightened future? Are we identifying the new opportunities
that are sure to surface? What are we doing about tomorrow?
As we return from our winter celebrations and begin the new year, let us internalize
the message of ancient man. As the days grow longer, warmer and lighter, let us
look toward the future with realistic optimism. Let us recognize that our greatest
gift is our ability to envision and create a better tomorrow. For, in truth, hope
springs eternal.
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