News: Heavy retail discounts expected as Christmas shopping begins. Weaker than expected 3Q consumer spending causes U.S. to revise GPD growth down to +2.8%. Improved trading for 1-3 ct. top quality certs. Consumer confidence remains weak but steady. Weakening dollar boosts gold to new record ($1,196/oz.) with 3Q demand for gold jewelry -30%. Debswana to invest $500m. to extend Jwaneng mine life. ALROSA Nov. sales $388m. Tiffany 3Q sales -3% to $598m., with U.S. sales -9%, Asia Pacific +10% and Europe +12%, net profit flat at $43m. Signet 3Q sales -3% to $614m., net loss of $7m. vs. net loss of $15m. a year earlier. Zale Corp. 1Q sales -10% to $329m., net loss of $58m., vs. net loss of $48m. a year earlier. Gitanjali Gems 2Q sales +36% to $378m., net profits +8% to $11m.
ANNOUNCEMENTS:RAPAPORT NEW YORK POLISHED DIAMOND TENDERDecember 7-10
Over 40,000 cts of melee, rounds and fancies, -2.5 sieve to 0.33 ct+,
from promotional to very fine qualities. Excellent opportunity
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By Appointment Only
Contact: Kathryn Langner
Email: Tenders@diamonds.net
Phone: 1-212-354-9800
---------------------------------------
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:"Jewelers are the first to get hurt and the last better. You can't eat [jewelry], you can't drive it and you can't put it in your gas tank. We've seen about a 40 percent drop in business, then our 'super clients,' as we call them — movie stars or wealthy business owners — and that has dropped by 85 or 90 percent. They just stopped buying big items, which can be anything from $20,000 to well over $100,000, and that business just disappeared, which has been a big deal for us. A lot of people had the attitude 'I don't want people to see me upgrading my jewelry when people are out of work and suffering,' and I think that may be fading, though."Tim Branscomb
Sierra~West Jewelers
Orem, Utah
RETAIL:Tiffany 3Q Sales -3%, Profit FlatTiffany & Co. reported a 2.9 percent drop in worldwide sales for its third quarter at $598.2 million. Net earnings were flat at $43.3 million. U.S. sales fell 9 percent, while sales across Asia-Pacific rose 10 percent and Europe reported a 12 percent increase. Comparable store sales company-wide fell 3 percent, led by a 10 percent drop in the U.S. Same-store sales rose 5 percent in Asia-Pacific and 6 percent in Europe. Sales at Tiffany's New York flagship store declined 8 percent. Tiffany reduced purchases of rough diamonds in response to soft consumer demand for polished goods. The cost of sales rose 0.5 percent to $270.4 million.
Zale 1Q Sales -10%, Widens LossesZale's revenues fell 9.6 percent to $329.2 million during the first quarter of fiscal 2010 and same-store sales dropped 6.8 percent, compared with a same-store sales decline of 3.7 percent one year ago. Zale reported a loss of $57.6 million, an increase from a loss of $48.4 million.
Zale closed 209 stores in the past 12 months. Inventory as of October 31 was $902 million, a decrease of approximately $100 million from October 2008. Zale had an outstanding debt of $466 million at the close of the quarter, compared with the $369 million debt recorded one year ago. Zale expects to continue reducing operating costs over the next 12 months, according to chief financial officer (CFO) Matt Appel.
Signet 3Q Sales -3%, Narrows LossesSignet Group's sales fell 2.5 percent to $613.7 million during its third fiscal quarter, while its same-store sales declined 1.9 percent; led by a 2.4 percent drop in the U.S. Signet reported a loss of $7 million, an improvement from the $15.1 million loss one year ago. Signet's U.S. sales fell 1.7 percent to $459.3 million, with its average selling price down 3.2 percent at its mall brand stores and 7.7 percent at its Jared stores. In the U.K., the retailer's sales rose 4.5 percent based upon constant exchange rates, but in dollars, they dipped 4.7 percent to $154.4 million. Comparable-store sales in the U.K. were flat. Diamonds performed well at both Ernest Jones and H.Samuel, with the average selling prices rising 12 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.
The retailer reduced its capital expenditure by half to approximately $55 million during the third quarter and revised its debt reduction plan to range between $300 million to $350 million, up from its original estimate of $175 million to $225 million. Signet's net debt was $160.7 million, down from the $577.8 million net debt it posted one year ago.
ShopNBC Jewelry Sales DropThird-quarter sales at ShopNBC fell 4.3 percent to $119.4 million. Watches, coins and collectibles replaced jewelry as the top-selling category, representing 33 percent of the product mix. Jewelry sales represented 26 percent of the mix, down from 33 percent one year ago. The average price point for all products fell to $95 from $187 one year ago. ShopNBC narrowed its return rate to 21.9 percent from 29.2 percent one year earlier. The retailer also added 58 new show titles during the third quarter, including one featuring Suzanne Somers jewelry and another titled "Brilliante Purely Platinum."
U.S. Weekly Chain Store Sales +3%U.S. weekly chain-store sales rose by 3.3 percent year on year for the week that ended November 21, 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. The week's comparable-store sales increase reflected an easy year-on-year comparison, given the 0.8 percent drop recorded one year ago. Sales were flat compared with the previous week.
Su-Raj 2Q Sales +35%Su-Raj Diamonds' sales rose 35 percent to $157 million in the second fiscal quarter with diamonds sales increasing 35 percent to $43.2 million and jewelry sales growing 36 percent to $113.9 million. Net profits increased 41 percent to $2.9 million.
Asian Star 2Q Sales -13%
Asian Star's sales fell 13 percent to $70.6 million in the second fiscal quarter as diamond sales decreased 14 percent to $69 million and jewelry sales rose 35 percent to $5.1 million. Intersegment sales amounted to $3.5 million. Net profits dropped 7 percent to $2.2 million.
Suashish 2Q Sales +23%
Suashish Diamonds' sales rose 23 percent to $76.6 million in its second fiscal quarter and posted a net profit of $2.5 million, compared with a net loss of $6.3 million one year ago.
Titan 2Q Jewelry Sales +9%Titan Industries’ jewelry sales rose 9 percent to $177.3 million in second fiscal quarter, while its watch sales fell 3 percent to $63.7 million. The group's net profits fell 12 percent to $16.7 million.
Gitanjali 2Q Sales +36%Gitanjali Gems' sales rose 36 percent to $377.5 million during its second fiscal quarter. The manufacturer and retailer's diamond revenues increased 26 percent $195.6 million, while jewelry revenues grew 31 percent to $202.9 million. Its intersegment sales amounted to $21.1 million. Revenues at Gitanjali’s India operations grew 62 percent, while in the rest of the world sales rose 22 percent.
Rapaport BroadcastAre you ready for the changing demographics in the United States? Industry consultant Hedda Schupak explains these changes and what steps manufacturers and retailers should be taking to grow the business.
WATCH NOW.
ECONOMY:Shopping Lists Have Less JewelryFewer consumers — just 11 percent — plan to buy jewelry as a Christmas gift this year, according to a recent pre-holiday study conducted by the Jewelry Consumer Opinion Council (JCOC), compared with 14 percent of respondents from its 2008 study. Of those buying jewelry, 50 percent said they will spend about the same amount as they had in 2008, but the approximate average amount they will spend was lower than in 2008.
Another recent survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and BIGresearch found that 20.8 percent of shoppers wanted jewelry for Christmas, as opposed to approximately 24.5 percent in 2008.
Consumer Confidence SteadiesThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® for the U.S. improved slightly for the month of November at 49.5 points, up from 44.7 points one year ago. The Index stood at 48.7 points in October 2009. The Present Situation Index, however, plummeted to 21 points this November, compared with 42.3 points in November 2008. The Expectations Index registered a gain of 22.3 points from one year ago at 68.5 points. Slightly fewer consumers expected employment and business conditions to worsen. Income expectations however remained pessimistic and consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood.
Many Factors Weigh on Spending PredictionsNovember's overall sales performance relies heavily on the cash-register sales generated on November 27, which is Black Friday or "Bargain Friday," as it is being referred to this year by ICSC given the heavy discounts expected. ICSC Research expects that day and that subsequent Saturday to be very strong, which should boost November chain store sales up 4 percent to 6 percent as easy year-over-year comparisons will dominate results. Sales in November 2008 fell almost 8 percent.
ICSC predicts that 26 percent of U.S. households will shop on Black Friday. Retail bargains could attract 134 million shoppers to stores between November 27 and 29, according to BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation (NRF), a higher count than the 128 million people who planned to shop on Thanksgiving weekend 2008. Fifty-seven million people said that they will definitely hit the stores this weekend, while another 77 million are waiting to see what retailers are planning before heading out the door. Discount and department stores will be the biggest attractions for consumers this coming weekend, with 66.3 percent and 62.4 percent, respectively, planning on heading to their favorite big box store.
The Conference Board found that, on average, U.S. households will spend $390 on Christmas gifts this year, a 6.7 percent drop from 2008. The average projected spending per household was quite lower than an earlier survey taken by the NRF in which average spending on gifts was projected to be about $508.
Only 8 percent of shoppers expected to spend more than $1,000 on Christmas gifts, according to The Conference Board's findings. Approximately thirty percent of the respondents said they planned to spend between $400 and $999, while 42 percent planned to spend between $100 and $399. Twenty-two percent stated that they will spend less than $100. Households with income of more than $50,000 expected to spend, on average, $514 on Christmas gifts, while those with incomes ranging from $35,000 to $50,000 planned to spend an average of $343.
A lot more shoppers are feeling stressed by debt with 93 percent saying they'll spend less or about the same as 2008, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. About 20 percent say they are suffering from debt-related stress, up from 15 percent in the spring. Most people — 80 percent — say they'll use mostly cash to pay for their holiday shopping and that generally means buying less.
"Cash serves as a very direct governing force upon spending," says Dr. Alan Hilfer, director of psychology at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, New York. "If you have $100 in your pocket and that's all you can spend, you'll look around and make a decision based on the amount of money you have." Credit cards, on the other hand, allow people to make more impulse purchases.
Looking into next year, consumers won't be in much of a mood to go on a shopping spree because of high unemployment and hard-to-get credit, according to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). Consumer spending will rise a lackluster 2 percent next year, one of the forces restraining the strength of the recovery, NABE forecasters said. Such spending fell 0.2 percent in 2008. Unemployment, now at 10.2 percent, will average 9.8 percent next year, they said.
MINING:ALROSA Sales Net $388MALROSA sold $388 million worth of diamonds in November and noted a significant increase in the demand for rough. The upward trend was due to deficits in pipeline from first half production closures. ALROSA sold $327 million of rough to the market, with the remainder going to the state diamond depository, Gokhran. Company's sales for the year to date have amounted to approximately $2.42 billion.
ALROSA redeemed three tranches of euro commercial paper (ECP) totaling $232 million in November. ALROSA has been borrowing heavily to finance the construction of three deep mines at a cost of approximately $1 billion each. Its net debt was approximately $5 billion at the end of July, but plans to reduce its debt to $3.2 billion by the end of 2010, the company's president, Fyodor Andreyev, has said. The company could, depending upon market conditions, issue between $347.2 million and $1 billion in bonds in December or the start of 2010.
Debswana Approves Jwaneng ExpansionDebswana estimated that it would spend $3 billion during the next 15 years extending the life of its Jwaneng diamond mine. The expansion project, which De Beers and Botswana called Cut 8, would give Debswana access to 95 million carats of rough. Debswana will invest $500 million in capital expenditure and taking into account all project stages, including feasibility, design, implementation and mining operations, as well as the cost of the plant and equipment. Cut 8 will ensure profitable and continuous production at the mine until at least 2025. At present, Jwaneng contributes approximately 70 percent of Debswana’s total revenue.
ECON WATCH:For the week ending November 26, 2009
| | Nov. 26 | Nov. 19 | Chng. | |
| $1 = Euro | 0.667 | 0.673 | -0.006 | |
| $1 = Rupee | 46.63 | 46.69 | -0.1 | |
| $1 = Israel Shekel | 3.75 | 3.80 | -0.05 | |
| $1 = Rand | 7.37 | 7.53 | -0.16 | |
| $1 = Canadian Dollar | 1.05 | 1.07 | -0.02 | |
| | | | | |
| Precious Metals | | | | |
| Gold | $1,189.90 | $1,144.30 | $45.60 | |
| Platinum | $1,452.00 | $1,439.00 | $13.00 | |
| | | | | |
| Stock Indexes | | | | Chng. |
| BSE | 16,854.93 | 16,785.65 | 69.28 | 0.41% |
| Dow Jones Avg. | 10,464.40 | 10,332.44 | 131.96 | 1.28% |
| FTSE | 5,194.13 | 5,267.70 | -73.57 | -1.40% |
| Hang Seng | 22,210.41 | 22,643.16 | -432.75 | -1.91% |
| S & P 500 | 1,110.63 | 1,094.90 | 15.73 | 1.44% |
| Yahoo! Jewelry Index | 1,191.77 | 1,120.52 | 71.25 | 6.36% |
| | | | | |
| USA | | | | |
| Birks & Mayors | $0.60 | $0.61 | -$0.01 | -1.64% |
| Blue Nile | $57.61 | $57.28 | $0.33 | 0.58% |
| Charles & Colvard | $1.25 | $1.08 | $0.17 | 15.74% |
| DGSE Companies, Inc. | $1.35 | $1.25 | $0.10 | 8.00% |
| Fuqi International | $22.00 | $20.18 | $1.82 | 9.02% |
| JCPenney | $30.64 | $29.48 | $1.16 | 3.93% |
| Kohl's | $55.54 | $54.32 | $1.22 | 2.25% |
| Lazare Kaplan | $2.50 | $2.50 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| LJ International | $3.23 | $3.26 | -$0.03 | -0.92% |
| Macy's | $17.56 | $17.37 | $0.19 | 1.09% |
| Man Sang | $2.76 | $2.73 | $0.03 | 1.10% |
| Movado Group | $10.54 | $10.55 | -$0.01 | -0.09% |
| Nordstrom | $34.83 | $34.16 | $0.67 | 1.96% |
| Saks | $6.74 | $6.67 | $0.07 | 1.05% |
| Signet | $26.37 | $27.57 | -$1.20 | -4.35% |
| Sotheby's | $19.98 | $19.67 | $0.31 | 1.58% |
| Tiffany | $43.89 | $41.16 | $2.73 | 6.63% |
| Walmart | $54.96 | $54.57 | $0.39 | 0.71% |
| Zale | $5.26 | $4.60 | $0.66 | 14.35% |
| | | | | |
| EUROPE | | | | |
| Bulgari | €6.03 | €6.10 | -€0.07 | -1.15% |
| Bijou Brigitte | €120.00 | €121.10 | -€1.10 | -0.91% |
| Damiani | €1.01 | €1.04 | -€0.03 | -2.88% |
| LVMH | €70.48 | €75.90 | -€5.42 | -7.14% |
| Pinault P-R SA | €80.72 | €82.13 | -€1.41 | -1.72% |
| Richemont SA | CHF 32.83 | CHF 32.21 | CHF 0.62 | 1.92% |
| Swatch Group | CHF 252.50 | CHF 255.90 | -CHF 3.40 | -1.33% |
| Theo Fennell (pence) | 50.00 | 49.00 | 1.00 | 2.04% |
| | | | | |
| INDIA (rupee) | | | | |
| Classic Diamond | 21.80 | 22.30 | -0.50 | -2.24% |
| Gitanjali Gems | 115.70 | 116.20 | -0.50 | -0.43% |
| Goldiam Int'l | 35.00 | 35.40 | -0.40 | -1.13% |
| Rajesh Exports | 77.60 | 81.20 | -3.60 | -4.43% |
| Ren. Jewellery | 49.20 | 45.65 | 3.55 | 7.78% |
| Su-Raj Diamonds | 45.80 | 47.60 | -1.80 | -3.78% |
| Titan | 1,280.70 | 1,402.95 | -122.25 | -8.71% |
| Zodiac JRD | 23.05 | 24.50 | -1.45 | -5.92% |
| Suashish Diamonds | 323.10 | 334.55 | -11.45 | -3.42% |
| | | | | |
| NEW ZEALAND | | | | |
| Michael Hill | NZD 0.62 | NZD 0.62 | NZD 0.00 | 0.00% |
| | | | | |
| MINING STOCKS | | | | |
| CANADA | | | | |
| Harry Winston | CAD 10.13 | CAD 10.55 | -CAD 0.42 | -3.98% |
| Lucara Diamond | CAD 1.11 | CAD 1.13 | -CAD 0.02 | -1.77% |
| Mountain Province | CAD 2.58 | CAD 2.80 | -CAD 0.22 | -7.86% |
| Peregrine Diamonds | CAD 1.55 | CAD 1.71 | -CAD 0.16 | -9.36% |
| Rockwell Diamonds | CAD 0.06 | CAD 0.06 | CAD 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Shore Gold | CAD 0.91 | CAD 0.76 | CAD 0.15 | 19.74% |
| Stornoway Diamond | CAD 0.25 | CAD 0.28 | -CAD 0.03 | -10.71% |
| True North Gems | CAD 0.10 | CAD 0.09 | CAD 0.01 | 11.11% |
| UK (pence) | | | | |
| African Diamonds | 40.00 | 45.00 | -5.0 | -11.11% |
| Anglo American | 2,563.00 | 2,527.00 | 36.0 | 1.42% |
| BHP Billiton | 1,834.50 | 1,826.50 | 8.0 | 0.44% |
| Firestone Diamonds | 30.25 | 31.50 | -1.3 | -3.97% |
| Gem Diamonds | 207.10 | 231.50 | -24.4 | -10.54% |
| Gemfields | 6.14 | 6.03 | 0.1 | 1.82% |
| Mwana Africa | 14.34 | 15.50 | -1.2 | -7.48% |
| Namakwa Diamonds | 30.89 | 33.47 | -2.6 | -7.71% |
| Petra Diamonds | 59.28 | 70.25 | -11.0 | -15.62% |
| Rio Tinto plc | 2,994.50 | 3,217.00 | -222.5 | -6.92% |
INDIA MARKET REPORT: | POLISHED: Steady trading in local polished market as the marriage season keeps traders busy. |
| Round |
| -1 point: | Verg good demand: -$200 whites. |
| Good demand: $200-$300 whites. |
| -2 point: | Good demand: -$300 whites. |
| 2-7 point: | Verg good demand: -$200 whites. |
| Good demand: +$200 whites. |
| 8-18 point: | Good demand: -$350 & +$600 whites. |
| 20 points: | Fair demand: +$600 whites. |
| 25 points: | Fair demand: +$700 whites. |
| 33 points: | Fair demand: +$900 whites. |
| 50 points: | Good demand: +$1000 whites. |
| Fair demand: $500-$700 whites |
| 75 points: | Fair demand: +$2000 & $700-$900 whites. |
| 1 carat+: | Very good demand: +$1000 whites. |
| Good demand: -$1000 whites. |
| Princess |
| -3 point: | Good demand: $300-350 whites. |
| Fair demand: $200-$275 whites. |
| +3 point: | Good demand: $350-$400 whites. |
| Fair demand: $200-$300 whites. |
| +9-18 point: | Good demand: +14 pts $550-$600 whites. |
| Fair demand: $250-$350 whites. |
| 20 point: | Fair demand: $700-$750 whites. |
| 25 point: | Fair demand: $800-$850 whites. |
| 50 point: | Good demand: $1600-$1,800 whites. |
| 75 point: | Fair demand: $1,000-$1,200 whites. |
| 1 carat+: | Good demand: +$1,500 whites. |
| Marquise |
| -6 point: | Good demand: $400-$500 whites. |
| Fair demand: $250-$350 whites. |
| +7-18 point: | Good demand: $600-$700 & +14 pts $800-$850 whites. |
| Fair demand: $250-$400 whites. |
| 20 point: | Fair demand: $250-$400 & $900-$1,000 whites. |
| 25 point: | Fair demand: $1,100-$1,200 whites. |
| 33 point: | Fair demand: $1,300-$1,500 whites. |
| 50 point: | Fair demand: $1,600-$1,800 & $600-$700 whites. |
| 75 point: | Fair demand: $1,100-$1,400 & $2,600-$2,800 whites. |
| 1 carat+: | Good demand: $300-$600 & +$1,000 whites. |
| Tapers & Baguettes |
| Good demand: $600-$800 +5mm whites. $250-$325 |
| 2mm-2.5mm whites; $350-$400, 2.5mm-3mm whites; |
| $400-$450 3mm-4mm, $500-$600 4mm – |
| 5mm & $175-$250 +2mm-3mm whites. |
| ROUGH: Good demand continues for rough yielding polished -0.01 to 0.10, VS+ and I+. Demand improving for Clivage. |
| 1-5 point: | Very Good demand: $85- $125 makeables; $100-$190 crystals. |
| $40-$75 makeables. |
| Fair demand: $7-$20 & $45-$90 OW TTLB & TTLC. |
| 6-20 point: | Very Good demand: $150-210 crystals; $90-$170 makeables. |
| Good demand: $60-$110 fancy shapes. |
| Good demand: $35-$60 clivage. |
| Fair demand: $50-$90 OW TTLC & TTLB rounds. |
| 21-50 point: | Very Good demand: $190-270 makeables; $110-$190 & $225-$290 crystals. |
| Good demand: $80-$190 fancy shapes; |
| Good demand: $95-$200 rounds; $40- $80 clivage. |
| Fair demand $20-$40 OW TTLC & TTLB. |
| 0.51-1.00 carat: | Very Good demand: $160-$310 makeables; |
| $125-$250 & $280-$450 crystals. |
| Good demand: $75-$110 makeables. |
| Good demand $90-$200 fancy shapes; $40-$90 clivage. |
| Fair demand $60-$90 OW TTLC & TTLB. |
| 1.01-2.00 carat: | Very Good demand: $200-$550 rounds; $250-$700 crystals. |
| Good demand: $80-$110 clivage; $180-$360 all fancy shapes. |
| Fair demand: $140-$180 OW TTLC & TTLB. |
| 2.01-3.00 carat: | Good demand: $250-$1,000 makeables; $350-$1,300 crystals; |
| $400-$800 fancy shapes; $220-$325 clivage. |
| Fair demand: $100-$325 flats & TTLC & TTLB |
| $350-$800 OW. |
| 5.00 carat+: | Good demand: $1,000+ makeables, crystals & all fancy shapes till L color. |
| Mixed Lot: | Good demand: $2-$40. |
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