Ray: First, U.S. jewelry retail sales have increased and the
trend there is strong. Second, the Diamond Producers Association in the U.S.
will give a big push to the industry. Third, to aid differentiation between natural
and lab-grown diamonds, U.S. jewelers should lobby the government into introducing
legislation on a harmonized code for lab-grown diamonds, as is the case in some
other countries.
Fischler (pictured, right): In essence, I would expect a more positive effect for the
market and high retail sales overall, but I don’t expect higher polished
prices. I do expect some strengthening of rough prices.
Polnauer: I expect great business ahead, with a substantial increase
in price and sales in polished goods across the board.
Which was the most significant external factor that
affected your business in 2016?
Meirov:
Oil
prices had plummeted. There were also problems in moving money around the world, while bank regulations also had an impact.
Ray: The single most important factor was finance,
which suddenly turned negative. We believe banks that have financed the
industry in the past should continue to do so.
Fischler: The consolidation of financing in the
industry. A lot of players have been left out and are in need of more credit –
both manufacturers and some traders.
Mehta: Every day something happens that affects
the business. It can be Trump’s election or Modi’s demonetization – there are so
many things that we forget what happened in the first half. We live in a world
that is characterized by ‘VUCA’ – volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and
ambiguity.
Polnauer: Monetary restriction in Hong Kong and China.
Bronstein: 2016 has been challenging, with competition
from synthetic diamonds gaining momentum.
What’s the biggest cause of optimism for 2017?
Meirov: There’s a better mood in the marketplace, but that can change quickly. At the moment, things are optimistic. Diamond
prices have hit a bottom and are going to start picking up, that’s my feeling. At
the moment there is a shortage of goods in the market because of the Indian
liquidity situation since demonetization, but this can also change very quickly.
Ray: The new U.S. government – positive things are
happening and it’s a change of direction. The Chinese market is stabilizing and
showing the first signs of growth.
Fischler: In the big markets, especially in the
U.S., we’re going to see a loosening of regulations that might result
in more positive consumer attitudes toward diamonds in the short term. There’s
going to be some shake-up in trade relationships around the world. That might also
be positive for diamonds in the short term.
Mehta: I’m looking for that silver lining. The
biggest source of optimism would be the fact that people have learnt their
lesson of the past few years. Hopefully, manufacturers will now focus more
on margins than revenue. That would set everything right.
Bronstein (pictured, left): If our industry works together to
project an honest and true message, consumers will choose the deeper meaning of
natural diamonds over the lookalikes created in laboratories.
Polnauer: Donald Trump and the improved market optimism, and the positive consumer sentiment.
What do you fear the most in 2017?
Ray: Industry financing becoming
tighter.
Fischler: More ‘blacks swans’ [unexpected and rare
events] à la Brexit and Trump – big geopolitical events. The world has been
much less predictable.
Mehta: The mining industry flooding the industry with rough diamonds because of new mines entering the market. I see demand
stagnant or maybe a bit down in 2017.
What was the most beautiful or significant
diamond or piece of jewelry you saw or handled in 2016?
Ray: Kate Winslet wearing a Nirav Modi collection
at the Oscars – the fact she wore Indian jewelry was important for us.
Fischler: It wasn’t very large, but it was a
beautiful,
beautiful 3-carat pear-shaped diamond. One of the stones you fall in
love with and are really sad to separate from.
Polnauer: Diamond earrings featuring two pear-shaped,
4.16-carat total weight, fancy vivid yellow diamonds, mounted in 18-karat white-and-yellow gold.