Rapaport Magazine
Markets & Pricing

Holiday outlook uncertain


Retailers are divided on the festive season’s significance for the jewelry calendar, with the pandemic heightening their concerns.

By Lara Ewen
As the Covid-19 pandemic entered its seventh month in the US with no clear end in sight, retailers’ feelings about the upcoming holiday season ranged from optimistic to apathetic. In-store shopping has understandably been down, as consumers have been looking online for both budgetary and safety reasons. Yet even before the pandemic, the importance of the holidays in the jewelry retail calendar was steadily declining.

To plan, or not to plan?

In an unpredictable year, it’s hardly surprising that some store owners are choosing to keep their fall inventories lean.

“I’m not planning anything...or buying [for the holiday season],” said Stew Brandt, owner of H. Brandt Jewelers in Natick, Massachusetts. “I’ve got more stock than I care to have. And our governor has made no bones about the fact that if we have a second [Covid-19] surge, he’ll shut us down, because his job is to protect the public.”

Brandt has been ramping up some of his online presence to compensate for a lack of in-store traffic. “I hired someone to amp up social marketing, and I’m also contemplating making my website shopping cart-enabled,” he elaborated. “But for now, people just come in when they see something online.”

The holidays are also not getting much attention from Ken Leung, founder of Ken and Dana Design, an online store with a New York-based showroom. He has “nothing exciting planned for the holidays,” he said, mainly because April was his only down month. “There [have] been challenges, but not pandemic-related. Material prices have gone up, and we produce everything locally, so during the lockdown, we were severely impacted because we couldn’t get to work.”

The holiday season isn’t big for him, though. “We don’t [sell] a lot of gifts,” he explained. “April to June are our biggest months, because of the wedding season and because we’re an engagement ring and bridal space.”

In contrast, Doug Jones, owner of Dale’s Jewelers in Idaho Falls, Idaho, said he was planning for a bustling holiday season. “I’ve been busy. The economy here doesn’t have a lot of peaks and valleys, and people aren’t traveling. That was one of my biggest competitors: plane tickets and hotel rooms.”

Jones is stocking up on diamonds and wedding sets, as well as “a lot of loose and mounted lab-grown, because that genie is out the bottle.” He’s also buying price-conscious items. The holidays are “a good bridal season, but I’m also stocking up on gifts,” he reported. “I strive for a price point that’s something south of $1,000.”

Continuing precautions

One of the biggest challenges for retailers is managing in-store traffic while keeping up with Covid-19 precautions. Leung said he was only seeing a small set of clients in person at his New York showroom. “We’re using masks and plexiglass,” he added. “And we’re seeing fewer clients from abroad and out of state, but still seeing 30 to 40 appointments a week.” For Jones, whose state has seen fewer than 450 Covid-19 deaths, the pandemic isn’t as big a factor.

“I’m not a denier,” he said. “I get it. I had Covid-19. But at some point, you have to walk that line between being a good citizen and being free to work and feed your family. And regionally, populations seem to react differently.”

Less traffic, bigger purchases

As long as everything remains stable in his area, Jones is optimistic. “I think [the] holiday will be good,” he asserted. “I think we’ll be surprised, in our industry. The mom-and-pops that have held on will have a good Christmas if the political environment keeps lending itself to growth.”

However, an increased autumn Covid-19 infection rate in Massachusetts due to the return of college students has made Brandt cautious.

“I think [the holiday season] is going to be a mixed bag,” he predicted. “I think there’s potential there for significant individual sales, from people who weren’t able to go on vacation and from people who aren’t paying tuition, or who aren’t paying for gas and commuter fees. But there won’t be a lot of traffic or a lot of SKUs [stock-keeping units].”

The move toward smaller events may be an unexpected boon for bridal, according to Leung. “We’re seeing clients have smaller weddings, which might lead to clients being able to spend more on rings,” he said. “I’ve heard the same from gown designers, or that clients want to splurge on pictures, because they’re having smaller parties.”


By the numbers
  • E-commerce is expected to account for around one-quarter of all US non-food retail sales in 2020, versus about one-fifth in 2019.
  • In a recent De Beers survey, 44% of consumers said they had more disposable cash after canceling travel plans, and one in eight said they would purchase a diamond instead to mark a special occasion.
  • Tiffany & Co. group sales fell 29% year on year to $747.1 million for the three months ending July 31, and net earnings plummeted 77% to $31.9 million. However, sales returned to pre-pandemic levels in August.
  • Nearly half (45%) of baby boomers (ages 56 to 74, roughly) say they’re shopping online more as a result of the pandemic.
Sources: Coresight Research, De Beers, Tiffany & Co., National Retail Federation (NRF)

Article from the Rapaport Magazine - October 2020. To subscribe click here.

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Tags: Lara Ewen