Rapaport Magazine
Markets & Pricing

Forecast optimistic amid stable sales


With the vacation period winding down, jewelers are predicting a strong second half as they prepare for the holidays.

By Lara Ewen
As summer came to a close, retailers were optimistic that the final months of the year would be lucrative. Summer sales were generally good, and even stores that struggled with traffic took the challenges in stride as they looked ahead to a strong holiday season. Retailers expressed concerns about inventory challenges as more customers sought out restyled and custom products, and the looming threat of new tariffs on $300 billion worth of goods imported from China, including diamonds and jewelry, was also cause for anxiety. Still, the general outlook was positive, and the end of 2019 was expected to be even or up from 2018.

The New York view

Summer is no longer a slow season in tourist destinations such as New York. “During typical slow periods, there’s a lot of tourists coming in from out of state and internationally, so there’s no change during the summer,” said Dana Walden Chin, cofounder — with his wife — of Dana Walden Bridal in the city. Chin said his results were essentially even with 2018 year on year, despite the couple pulling back slightly from their business following the birth of their first child. “I feel like even the more traditional stores benefit from tourist traffic,” he commented. “[New York] used to empty out in the summer, but now everything is a touristy neighborhood. They have tours coming through Brooklyn and every nook and cranny of Manhattan.”

Chin said his store didn’t plan traditional holiday events, instead opting to fete customers with a more intimate celebration. “We try and do something less conventional, like host a catered dinner party for our closest clients,” he said.

He believes the rest of 2019 will remain stable. “Stores that are doing well will continue to do well. And stores that are struggling will need to make some shifts. Overall, holiday [sales] will be strong. We’re getting healthy inquiries from all across the country, and all across the world. And there’s a healthy appetite for gifts at holidays and anniversaries.”

Slow traffic, decent revenue

Elsewhere in the country, summer sales were mild but not demoralizing. “In the grand scheme of things for summer, [business] is not too bad,” said Stewart Brandt, owner of H. Brandt Jewelers in Natick, Massachusetts. “Traffic is not too great, but those who come in are selling a lot of gold and silver, and buying stuff. And we’re doing a bunch of restyling, which has been pretty strong for the last couple years.” Brandt predicted that both sales and traffic would increase in September, once children were back in school and parents had more downtime.

In the midwest, summer was very strong. “So far, the summer has been really busy — more than normal,” said Michael Lordo, president of Lordo’s Diamonds, which is based in Ladue, Missouri, and serves the St. Louis area. “So far this year, we’re up about 15%. I hope it stays like that.”

Holiday hopes

Lordo said his store planned to host a holiday open house in early December for its top 100 customers, and to ramp up with advertising via mobile, billboards and radio. “We are actually preparing now,” he said. Lordo was also optimistic about the rest of year. “I’m hoping the second half is as good as the first half,” he said, adding that fancy diamond shapes such as marquise and pears were trending. “That makes it tougher to figure out inventory, but there’s always memo.”

For holiday 2019, Brandt’s store is celebrating its 30th anniversary and plans to hold a large sale offering 30% off many goods. It’s a bittersweet anniversary, though, because Brandt is considering the possibility that he might have to close the store when he retires. “Five more years and I’m done,” he said. “[But] I keep holding out hope that my youngest son will come to me and say, ‘I’m ready.’ Then I can send him to [the Gemological Institute of America (GIA)] and hang out in the store three days a week.”

Looking ahead to the rest of 2019, Brandt said he was worried about how politics and tariff issues would affect his business, but was otherwise hopeful. “If my second half or my last third [of the year] is as strong as my first third, I’ll be ecstatic,” he said. “As long as I make enough money to cover my expenses and put a few bucks away, I’m happy.”

By the numbers
  • The Gemological Institute of America (GIA) reduced grading fees by 10% until October 15 for 0.30- to 0.49-carat polished due to a recent drop in submissions.

  • In US retail, total purchase value grew 2.3% year on year in June.

  • In the three months that ended June 30, 135 US stores closed — 31% fewer than last year.

  • Consumers spend an average of $2,269 when buying jewelry in physical stores, compared with $1,099 online.

  • Sources: GIA, National Retail Federation, Jewelers Board of Trade, Citibank’s Citi Retail Services

    Article from the Rapaport Magazine - September 2019. To subscribe click here.

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    Tags: Lara Ewen