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Retail Stock Analysts “Cautiously Optimistic” on Holiday Retail

Oct 21, 2015 4:39 AM   By Rapaport News
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RAPAPORT... Equities analysts at Nomura Securities are expecting a 2.5-3 percent comp holiday sales increase for North American specialty retailers that they track, according to a presentation to investors sent on October 20.

“Heading into this holiday season, we are cautiously optimistic that retail sales will be healthy,” the report said. “We are generally encouraged by recent macro trends” and “believe consumers are entering this holiday season with extra cash in their pockets.”

This year’s holiday calendar has an extra day compared with 2014, with 28 selling days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That extra day is worth about one percentage point on sales for the period versus 2014, the analysts wrote.

The presentation raised a note of caution regarding the competitive threat to traditional retailers from Amazon.com. The analysts said the web retail giant is expected to increase “levels of price competition this season based on continued price transparency evident through initiatives by retailers to implement” price matching.

Consultants PwC have predicted that consumers will complete 29 percent of their shopping before the start of Black Friday week, which begins November 27. Some 45 percent of holiday shopping is expected in December.




Source: Nomura Securities; National Retail Federation
Tags: holiday sales, Nomura Securities, outlook, Rapaport News, Signet, Tiffanys
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