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Market Comments 1/3/2013
Jan 3, 2013 6:00 PM
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Diamond prices stabilize in December easing sharp declines for the year: 2012 RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1ct. -12.5%, 0.3ct. -7.4%, 0.50ct. -11.1%, 3ct. -11.6%, Rapaport Melee Index (RMI™) +2.3%. Diamond buyers conservative as higher U.S. taxes expected to reduce luxury spending in 2013. Expectations rise for Chinese New Year as China’s economic outlook improves. Israel’s 2012 polished exports -23% to $5.6B, rough imports -13% to $3.8B. Japan’s Nov. polished imports +9% to $68M. Tiffany extends partnership with designer Elsa Peretti for 20 years. De Beers executives to address U.S. DMIA on Jan. 8.
Fancies: Fancy market steady. Smaller sizes selling well with good demand for 3/4's. Lower fancy shape price points attracting price sensitive buyers. Demand for Princess replacing Cushions. Improving demand for fancies at attractive price points encouraging manufacturers to shift production to fancy shapes. Extreme price differentials between excellent/fine and average cut fancy shapes. Caution: Prices for green, grey and brown tinted diamonds 10-15% below non-tinted. Green tint often indicates Marange origin.
Global Markets
United States: Despite the last-minute agreement reached in Washington this week to avoid the fiscal cliff, unresolved deficit discussions and higher taxes continue to shake confidence. A tax hike on wealthy consumers is expected to impact discretionary spending this year. Wholesale diamond trading is expectedly slow with many dealers taking vacation during the week of Christmas and New Year. They are hoping to build on the momentum gained from the holiday season but expect conservative restocking from jewelry retailers in January – especially given initial reports indicating disappointing holiday retail sales. Activity in the retail sector has slowed since Christmas and store owners are returning their focus on bridal again.
Belgium: Bourse services remained closed this week during the Christmas-New Year break and most diamond businesses were also closed. Future credit to the industry continues to dominate discussions in Antwerp since the ABN AMRO-Arjav dispute in late December, while manufacturers are assessing prospects in the rough market for the coming year.
Israel: Polished trading was quiet over the New Year with most U.S. clients closed for the week. Israeli businesses took the opportunity to get their houses in order, particularly in time for the December 31 financial year-end for some. The focus is shifting toward the Far East ahead of the Chinese New Year in February with rising demand for dossier, VS-SI, nice-make, triple Ex goods. Manufacturers are seeing improved margins from their Russian supply but rough trading remains relatively weak.
India: Polished trading was restrained as U.S. and European buyers have been absent during the Christmas-New Year week. There is steady Far East demand for dossiers, while visiting Antwerp-based Indian buyers continued to focus on small-size goods. There is good demand for SI- clarity stones, which continue to be in short supply. Domestic demand is slightly weak. Rough trading remains reserved because overall demand hasn’t picked up as manufacturing continues at lower capacity. The exchange rate remained relatively stable this week.
China: Wholesale trading is quiet as businesses were closed for most of this week. There are rising expectations for retail sales with the approach of the Chinese New Year season as economic forecasts have improved. However, diamond buying is still conservative and retailers are not yet ready to make large inventory orders. They remain uncertain whether the recent polished price stability will be sustained or whether the market has bottomed. There is improving demand for 0.30-carat to 0.40-carat, H+, VS-SI goods ahead of the holiday.
Hong Kong: Retailers continue to express caution as forecasts have been subdued due to global economic uncertainty and the rising trend among tourists from mainland China to travel to Europe rather than Hong Kong as their luxury goods shopping destination. Diamond dealers are seeing opportunities in the Pacific Rim and hoping that prospective growth in Mainland China will help stimulate better trade in 2013.
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