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Rapaport Weekly Market Comment
January 14, 2015
Jan 14, 2016 11:00 AM
By Rapaport News
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Rounds: Sentiment improving after
positive U.S. Christmas season but low expectations for Chinese New Year.
Polished prices firm with supply shortages expected to support the market
through 1Q. Manufacturing increasing slightly but still estimated at 30% below
capacity. Rough demand improving with 5-7% price cut expected at next week’s De
Beers sight. Chow Tai Fook 3Q sales -11%. Luk Fook 3Q same-store sales -25%. Richemont
3Q jewelry maisons sales +2% to $1.8B. Birks 3Q same-store sales +3.5%. Michael
Hill 1H revenue +9% to $213M. U.S. Nov. polished imports -15% to $1.6B, polished
exports -16% to $1.4B. Israel 2015 polished exports -20% to $5B, rough imports
-31% to $2.8B.
Fancies: Pears and
Ovals in short supply due to limited production. Emeralds improving. Fairly
good market for large top-quality fine-cut fancy shapes but buyers are
extremely picky and supply is very tight. Cushions steady, Princess and Hearts
slow. Overall fancy shape prices relatively soft. U.S. demand supporting market
for commercial-quality fancies, especially for sizes under 1ct. Far East fancy
demand weak. Buyers are very selective and insisting on excellent-shape
proportions. Significant price differentials between excellent- and average-cut
fancies. Off-make, poorly-cut fancies illiquid and very hard to sell, even at
very deep discounts.
United States: Sentiment improving with
positive reports about jewelry sales over Christmas. Dealers returning to the
market and looking for diamonds but trading limited by shortages. Prices firm
for RapSpec A2 (3X, none) diamonds due to scarce supply. Profitability still a problem with lower
prices offered for unwanted inventory. Memo sales improving and encouraging
dealers to replace stock.
Belgium: Dealers more optimistic
about the market after solid U.S. Christmas season. Buyers making inquiries to
assess prices rather than place orders. Good demand for 0.30-0.90ct., D-J,
VVS-SI, and steady demand for 1ct. diamonds in all categories. Rough trading
slow due to lack of goods on the market. Rough demand rising ahead of De Beers
sight and ALROSA sale (Jan. 18) but profitability concerns persist.
Israel: Sentiment improving and
dealers gaining confidence to buy. Polished prices firm with shortages limiting
trading for RapSpec A2 (3X, none) diamonds. Very little new supply coming into
the market with reduced manufacturing. Steady demand for 0.30-1ct., G-I, VS-SI
diamonds. Improving demand for 5ct. and larger diamonds. 3ct. slightly soft. U.S.
demand good, Far East market uncertain. Good demand for ovals and pears with
shortage of top-make fancy shapes. Rough trading is slow due to profitability
concerns and a lack of goods on the market.
India: Polished
trading okay with steady U.S. post-holiday demand but some uncertainty about
China. Dealers projecting 2016 will be better than last year as shortages are
supporting the market. Limited supply and firm prices for RapSpec A2 and better
diamonds (3X, none). Still a lot of RapSpec A3 and lower quality diamonds available
with suppliers more flexible on price for these goods. Manufacturing still
estimated 30 percent below capacity with little fresh polished supply expected
in the market in 1Q. Rough demand stable ahead of January De Beers sight and
ALROSA sale.
Hong Kong: Trading is focused on
filling last-minute orders before the wholesale market closes for the Chinese
New Year (Feb. 8). Trading is slower than previous years as retailers still
have inventory they bought in 2014. Shortages supporting prices for RapSpec A2
(3X, none) 0.30-1ct., D-I, VS-SI diamonds. Attention shifting to retail with
low expectations for the season. China jewelry sales stable, Hong Kong and
Macau very slow. Sentiment weak following Chinese stock market sell-off and
2015 economic slowdown. Hong Kong jewelers expect fewer Chinese tourist
arrivals this season.
See www.diamonds.net/Prices/RapaportSpecs.aspx
for full explanation of Rapaport Diamond Specifications.
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Tags:
Rapaport News, Rapaport Weekly Market Comment
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