Right now, even though many businesses are doing better than
they did in 2011, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general elections is
making everyone nervous and careful. Spending slowed during the summer months,
as it often does, but this year, most store owners don’t feel that sales will
improve until after the election, regardless of who wins.
Some stores are seeing much better numbers this year than in
2011, and although the increase hasn’t been consistent month-to-month, the
overall improvement has been marked. “This year began with a real upsurge in
business, which to us means more engagement rings and wedding bands,” said
Evans P. Siskel, co-owner of DVVS Fine Jewelry in New York City. “July was very
quiet, and August was marginally better. Then, by the middle of August, things
were picking up substantially and now we are in full swing. So far, it looks
like 2010 was the bottom for us, in terms of the effects of the economy on business.”
In Florida, the numbers are equally strong. “As far as the
first half of 2012, we’ve been doing very well, and we’re up double digits,”
said Carlos Fernandez, general manager of H & H Jewels in Coconut Grove,
Florida. “It slowed down during the summer, as usual. For us, that will start
picking up in the beginning of October.”
Other areas of the South are also seeing terrific numbers.
“2012 has been great,” said Bill Jones, president of Sissy’s Log Cabin, with
three stores in Arkansas. “We opened a new store in Jonesboro in 2012, and our
other stores, in Little Rock and Pine Bluff, are up for the year. I would say
when all is totaled, from 2011 to 2012, we’re up by 35 or 40 percent.”
Other retailers have seen more unpredictable returns. “This
year, we’ve kind of had to swing at what’s coming over the plate,” said Lance
Buttars, owner of Molinelli’s Jewelers in Pocatello, Idaho. “Overall, I think
we’re on par with 2011, but 2012 just has a feel of being softer. There’s a
sense of caution before the election, and the average ticket is smaller. I’m
prepared to say I don’t think we’re going to finish 2012 as strong as we
finished 2011.”
It should also come as no surprise that there are some
stores that are still struggling. “We’re down from 2012,” said Christopher
Eles, co-owner of Crown Fine Jewelry in Scottsdale, Arizona. “Not a lot, but
we’re down. The economy is still in distress, and we’re selling a lot more
silver, so the price points are lower. As far as the number of people coming in
the door, it’s still busy, but it all depends on the election, and also on gold
prices.”
The election is at the front of everyone’s mind, regardless
of party affiliation. “People are concerned about what’s going to happen,
government-wise,” said Jones. “People who have money are just holding on. But
if we get a Republican president, I think we’ll have one of the best
Christmases we’ve ever seen.”
In Arizona, Eles put it simply. “If we get the right
president in, and we get the job market back up, then things will go up,” he
said. “And if we get the wrong president, things will not improve.”
The election is also an issue on the East Coast. “Both U.S.
coasts are
more liberal than the middle of the country,” said Siskel. “If the
stock market or precious metals prices jump or fall, it will probably affect
business, and there may be a reaction to election results that will produce a
change in stocks or prices. It’s hard to predict, since things were so bad four
years ago, but the mind-set is different now. It appears that folks are
regaining confidence.”
Some feel that customers simply won’t feel secure until the
election is over, regardless of the result. “A lot of our clients are timid and
waiting to see what happens,” said Fernandez. “For us, once the election is
over, everyone will have a little more information. I think it just needs to be
over. Right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty. But either way, people will
adjust, and at least they’ll be certain, and they’ll know who the president
will be for the next four years. A lot of our clients are business owners, and
they need certainty to move forward.”
That feeling of uncertainty is widespread. “People want to
play their cards close to the vest regarding which candidate they support, so they
say, ‘Now is not a good time,’ when thinking about a purchase,” said Buttars.
“They just want to see how the election will affect their financial decisions.
But I have customers on both sides who think that if so-and-so wins, then
things will be desperate. And it’s more divisive than ever. So what I’m seeing
businesswise is that, for the big-ticket items, people want to wait and see how
this election shakes out. If their 401(k) is not impacted, and if their worst
fears aren’t realized, they’ll go out and make good on that anniversary
purchase.”