The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose by nine
points in September following a decline in August. The index now stands at 70.3, up from 61.3 last month.
The
Expectations Index increased to 83.7 from 71.1. The Present Situation Index
rose to 50.2, up from 46.5 last month.
Despite continuing economic uncertainty, consumers are
slightly more optimistic than they have been in several months, according to
Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators. Their appraisal of present-day
conditions improved in September. Those claiming business conditions are good
edged up to 15.5 percent from 15.3 percent, while those saying business
conditions are bad declined to 33.3 percent from 34.3 percent. Consumers’
assessment of the labor market was also more upbeat. Those stating jobs are
plentiful rose to 8.3 percent from 7.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are
hard to get edged down to 39.9 percent from 40.6 percent.
Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term
outlook in September. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the
next six months increased to 18.2 percent from 16.7 percent, while those
anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 13.8 percent from
17.6 percent.
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The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for jewelry fell 1.4
percent year on year in August to 177.1 points. While the index measured its
highest level since March, it registered its second consecutive monthly
year-on-year decline.
However, the CPI remains at historically high levels and
August’s reading marked
20 consecutive months with a reading of more than 170
points.
For all product categories combined, the CPI rose in August
by 1.7 percent year on year to 230.1 points, setting a new record high.
ShopperTrak anticipates that U.S. retail sales will rise 3.3
percent during the November and December period, while foot traffic should
increase 2.8 percent. Given that the holiday season retail sales account for
roughly 20 percent of annual sales, the group’s forecast is encouraging to
retailers, especially due to the extended holiday season.
The Thanksgiving weekend falls earlier in 2012, resulting in
32 days between Black Friday and Christmas, the longest interval possible.
Hanukkah also falls 11 days earlier than it did in 2011.
ShopperTrak also examined the impact of the U.S.
presidential election on the retail cycle. In nonelection years, retailers
market heavily in October and into early November to drive store foot traffic
as the holidays begin. However, this year, political ads will dominate the
airwaves and reduce the impact of retailer marketing efforts. ShopperTrak’s
analysis reveals shopping activity tapers off before national elections with a
decline of 6.3 percent posted the week before voting in 2008, but rebounds
quickly.
The group expects sales to increase 4 percent year on year
for apparel and accessories, while electronic sales will rise only 1.5 percent.
Harry Winston Diamond Corporation reported that luxury brand
segment sales from its
21 salons fell 13 percent year on year to $115.4 million
during the second fiscal quarter. Luxury brand sales across the Americas
increased 32 percent year on year to $35.8 million, while European luxury sales
decreased 40 percent to $15.6 million. In Asia, these sales plummeted by 43
percent to $34 million, but increased by 47 percent in Japan to
$30.1 million.
Over the long term, consumer brand loyalty for luxury
products is expected to remain strong, according to the company. In the near
term, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the resulting slower growth in
the export-driven emerging markets represent challenges that could impact
demand for luxury jewelry and watch products.
The luxury retailer opened a salon at Harrods department
store in London, England and plans to open a new salon in Geneva, Switzerland
next year. In addition, a new licensed salon is expected to open in Kuwait
City, Kuwait later this year.
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited was selected as a
constituent stock of the Hang Seng China 50 Index as of September. It is one of only 34 Hong Kong-listed
companies in the China 50 Index and the first and only jeweler to be included
since the China 50 Index was launched in June 2008.
The China 50 Index measures the overall performance of the
50 largest China-focused companies by market capitalization listed on Hong Kong
and/or Mainland China
stock exchanges.
Richemont reported that sales rose 13 percent year on year
at constant-exchange rates during a five-month period that ended on August 31.
Sales at Richemont’s jewelry maisons division, which includes Cartier and Van
Cleef & Arpels, grew 12 percent, while sales at the company’s specialist
watchmakers rose 16 percent.
Article from the Rapaport Magazine - October 2012. To subscribe click here.